Short-term Hydropower Planning With Uncertain Wind Power Production

The main purpose of this paper is to summarize the findings from simulating two stochastic short-term planning models for a price-taker hydropower producer. The first model is a two-stage stochastic linear programming problem. Profound sensitivity analysis is provided in terms of volatility in spot market prices and water inflow level. The results show that for the short-term hydropower planning problems the effect of considering price uncertainty in the stochastic model is higher compared to considering inflow level uncertainty. The second model is a two- stage stochastic linear programming problem. The model generates optimal bids to spot market considering real-time market price uncertainties. While simultaneously bidding to both markets, the results are not realistic. To make the bidding strategies more flexible and robust different approaches are modeled and assessed. Finally one of the approaches is suggested as the most applicable one.QC 20131217