Diagnosis of Financial Distress in Construction Sector

Tyrimo problema – nėra pakankamai patikimo finansinių sunkumų diagnozavimo modelio, kuris kuo anksčiau diagnozuotų finansinius sunkumus ir įmonės galėtų pasinaudoti prevencinėmis procedūromis. Ginamieji teiginiai : 1. Finansinių sunkumų diagnozavimui reikšmingi du papildomi rodikliai - modifikuotas įsiskolinimas ir padengimas likvidžiu turtu. 7 2. Sudarytas logistinės regresijos modelis leidžia patikimai apskaičiuoti įmonių finansinių sunkumų tikimybę. Tyrimo objektas – statybos sektoriaus įmonių finansinių sunkumų diagnozavimas. Tyrimo tikslas – sukurti finansinių sunkumų diagnozavimo modelį ir jį patikrinti statybos sektoriaus įmonėse. Tyrimo laikotarpis – 2014-2018 m. Tyrimo uždaviniai: 1. Išanalizuoti finansinių sunkumų sampratą, priežastis ir pasireiškimo požymius; 2. Išnagrinėti finansinių sunkumų diagnozavimo modelius ir rodiklius; 3. Parengti finansinių sunkumų diagnozavimo modelį; 4. Empiriškai patikrinti sukurto modelio tinkamumą pasirinktų įmonių tarpe.Research object – identification of financial distress in Lithuanian construction companies. Research aim – develop and test a model for determining the probability of financial distress in Lithuanian construction companies. Research objectives: - Analyze the causes, signs and consequences regarding financial distress. - Analyze and summarize the problematics of works that are examining financial distress and methods of forecasting insolvency. - To develop a methodology for creating and testing a model for determining financial distress in companies. - Develop a model for determining the probability of financial distress in construction companies. - Check the validity of the created model. The first part of the work: analyzes the essence of financial distress and factors determining the occurrence of financial distress, determines the need of timely identification of financial distress, examines financial distress forecasting models that are already developed and most often applied in practice, also their advantages and disadvantages. The second part of this work examines development and testing methodology regarding the new model for determining financial distress. The set of indicators used to create the model consists of financial indicators most commonly used in other authors’ models and has been supplemented with two new indicators. It is defended statement that the new indicators are relevant for determining financial distress. The third part of the work is an empirical study. A model for determining the probability of financial distress in the construction sector has been developed. A second defended statement is raised that the newly developed model allows to reliably determine the probability of financial distress. The first defended statement was partially confirmed. Among the additionally included indicators, one - “modified indebtedness”, is significant in determining the probability of financial distress in construction companies. The reliability of the newly developed model was determined by studying other companies in the construction sector. The second defended statement was confirmed. The model is suitable for identifying financial distress in the construction sector. The model correctly classified 97 percent of inspected companies, model sensitivity is 100 percent, model specificity is 94 percent.Bioekonomikos plėtros fakultetasBioekonomikos tyrimų instituta