Evidence for increasing human-wildlife conflict despite a financial compensation scheme on the edge of a Ugandan National Park

The conflict of large carnivores and agro-pastoral communities is a key driver of carnivore decline globally. The East African state of Uganda relies heavily on tourism as a GDP contributor and large carnivores are important for generating visitor revenue in its national parks. African leopards, spotted hyenas and African lions are three species that draw significant tourist attention but also cause damage to the livestock of human communities living on Ugandan national park edges. A private safari lodge in the Lake Mburo National Park has been using a financial compensation scheme in an attempt to stem conflict between these species and human communities living in the region since 2009. Financial compensations have produced mixed results with some studies reporting successes in reducing carnivore deaths, while others warn against their use, citing moral hazard, financial unsustainability and weakened protection of livestock by farmers. We sought to assess the characteristics of this compensation scheme and the patterns of conflict between Bahima pastoralist communities and carnivores that the scheme aims to mitigate. Using a dataset of 1,102 leopard and hyena depredation events (January 2009-December 2018) we found that spotted hyenas were responsible for the overwhelming majority of livestock depredation (69%) around Lake Mburo. Depredations occurred mostly at night (97% and 89% of all depredation for spotted hyenas and leopards respectively) and inside livestock protective pens (bomas). Depredation was more likely to occur in rugged areas, closer to human settlements, and the national park border, and further away from water. We could find no evidence of seasonality in depredation events. Our most important, albeit worrying result was that conflict had increased dramatically over time and the number of depredation claims had tripled in the period from 2014-2018 when compared to 2009-2013, risking financial unsustainability of the scheme. Our results are important for future conservation stakeholders attempting to implement financial compensation in the broader Ugandan landscape. They suggest that careful thought needs to be placed into fund sustainability, increasing claims over time and the development of clear rules that underpin compensation claims