Impact of Weather Factors on Migration Intention using Machine Learning Algorithms

A growing attention in the empirical literature has been paid on the incidence of climate shocks and change on migration decisions. Previous literature leads to different results and uses a multitude of traditional empirical approach. This paper proposes a tree-based Machine Learning (ML) approach to analyze the role of the weather shocks towards an individual’s intention to migrate in the six agriculture-dependent economy countries such as Burkina Faso, Ivory Coast, Mali, Mauritania, Niger, and Senegal. We perform several tree-based algorithms (e.g., XGB, Random Forest) using the train-validation test workflow to build robust and noise-resistant approaches. Then we determine the important features showing in which direction they are influencing the migration intention. This ML based estimation accounts for features such as weather shocks captured by the Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) for different timescales and various socioeconomic features/covariates. We find that (i) weather features improve the prediction performance although socioeconomic characteristics have more influence on migration intentions, (ii) country-specific model is necessary, and (iii) international move is influenced more by the longer timescales of SPEIs while general move (which includes internal move) by that of shorter timescales