Social determinants of voter choice in the 2002 New Zealand general election: An electoral-level study

iii, 117 leaves, [8] leaves of plates :col. ill. ; 30 cm. Includes bibliographical references. University of Otago department: Economics. "March 2006".This paper discusses the events surrounding the 2002 New Zealand General Election and construction of models of vote choice using data from this election. The effect of different social characteristics on party vote choice at the electoral level is assessed by running ordinary least squares regressions. Special steps are taken to ensure formal tests are accepted and outliers omitted where necessary. Results of these regressions are then compared to the findings of previous studies. While those variables found to be most important in previous studies could not be included in this study, as they were more of an individual nature, my finding is here that ethnicity, income and the unemployment benefit played crucial roles in determining vote choice in 2002.UnpublishedAimer, P. and Vowles, J. (2003). What happened at the 2002 Election? [Revised version of a paper presented at the New Zealand Political Studies Association Conference, April 2003]. http://www.nzes.ore/docs/papers/NZPSA 2003.pdf. Atkinson, Neill (2003). Adventures in Democracy. Dunedin: University of Otago Press. Boston, J., Levine, S., McLeay E. and Roberts, N.S. (1996). New Zealand Under MMP. Auckland: Auckland University Press. Boston, J., Church, S., Levine, S., McLeay, E. and Roberts, N.S. (2003). New Zealand Votes: The General Election of 2002. Wellington: Victoria University Press. Braddock, J. (2002). The New Zealand elections: the anti-working class record of the Labour government. World Socialist Website. tittp://www.wsws.org/articles/2002/jul2002/nzel-j27.shtml. Braddock, J. (2002). Big Business backing Labour to win New Zealand election. World Socialist Website. http://www.wsws.orglarticles/2002/ju12002/nzel-j11.shtm I. Electoral Commission New Zealand, 2002. Electoral Compendium 3` d Edition. http://www.elections.or .nziu oads/electoral connendium 3rd ed 2002.pdf. Karp, J.A. (2005). Political Knowledge About Electoral Rules: Comparing Mixed Member Proportional Systems in Germany and New Zealand. Electoral Studies 1:17. New Zealand Election Study, 2000. Electoral System Opinion and the Evolution of MMP: A Report to the Electoral Commission. http://www.nzes.org/docs/papers/nzes_2000.pdf. New Zealand Election Study, 2002. http://www.nzes.org/exec/show/2002 NZES+Results. New Zealand Election Study, 2002. Official Election Results, 2002. http://www.nzes.ora/docs/2002Results.xls, Statistics New Zealand, 2002. Electoral Profile (2002 Boundaries) (2001)- reference report. littp://www.stats.g,ovt.nz/census/2001-electoral-profile/default. Vowles, J. (2003). Before and After: Campaign Influences on Voting Choices at the 2002 New Zealand Election. [Paper prepared for presentation at the New Zealand Political Studies Association Conference, University of Auckland, April 12-13 2003]. http://www.nzes.org/docs/papers/APSA_2003_Vowles.pdf. Vowles, J., Aimer, P., Banducci, S., Karp, J. and Miller, R. (2004). Voters' Veto: The 2002 Election in New Zealand and the Consolidation of Minority Government. Auckland: Auckland University Press