When do students intend to return? Determinants of students’ return intentions using a multinomial logit model

Using a multinomial logit model, this paper looks at the determinants of when tertiary level international students intend to return home upon completion of their studies in New Zealand, be it not return, return immediately, return after some working stint, or return after some further education. Good perceptions of home have a strong positive impact on the probability of returning immediately, with perception of home lifestyle having the strongest impact. Contrary to received wisdom, perception of wage does not play a dominant role in determining when students intend to return home.PublishedAmemiya, T. (1981). Qualitative Response Models: A Survey. Journal of Economic Literature, 19(4), 1483-1536. Amemiya, T. (1985). Advanced Econometrics. Oxford: Basil Blackwell. Anderson, J. A. (1984). Regression and Ordered Categorical Variables. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series B (Methodological), 46(1), 1-30. Baruch, Y., Budhwar, P. S., & Khatri, N. (2007). Brain drain: Inclination to stay abroad after studies. Journal of World Business, 42(1), 99-112. Caudill, S. (2000). Pooling choices or categories in multinomial logit models. Statistical Papers, 41(3), 353-358. Cavana, R. Y., Delahaye, B. L., & Sekaran, U. (2001). Applied business research: Qualitative and quantitative methods. Sdyney: John Wiley & Sons. Cramer, J. S., & Ridder, G. (1991). Pooling states in the multinomial logit model. Journal of Econometrics, 47(2-3), 267-272. Glaser, W. A. (1978). The brain drain: Emigration and return. Oxford: Pergamon Press. Gungor, N. D., & Tansel, A. (2008). Brain drain from Turkey: an investigation of students' return intentions. Applied Economics, 40, 3069-3087. Hausman, J., & McFadden, D. (1984). Specification Tests for the Multinomial Logit Model. Econometrica, 52(5), 1219-1240. Krejcie, R. V., & Morgan, D. W. (1970). Determining sample size for research activities. Educational and Psychological Measurement, 30, 607-610. Li, F. L. N., Findlay, A. M., Jowett, A. J., & Skeldon, R. (1996). Migrating to learn and learning to migrate: A study of the experiences and intentions of international student migrants. International Journal of Population Geography, 2, 51-67. Long, J. S. (1987). A graphical method for the interpretation of multinomial logit analysis. Sociological Methods Research, 15(4), 420-446. Long, J. S., & Freese, J. (2006). Regression models for categorical dependent variables using Stata. Texas: Stata Press. Manski, C. F. (1977). The structure of random utility models. Theory and Decision, 8, 229-254. Manski, C. F. (1990). The Use of Intentions Data to Predict Behavior: A Best-Case Analysis. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 85(412), 934-940. McFadden, D. (1974). Conditional logit analysis of qualitative choice behavior. In P. Zarembka (Ed.), Frontiers of Econometrics. New York: Academic Press. Small, K. A., & Hsiao, C. (1985). Multinomial Logit Specification Tests. International Economic Review, 26(3), 619-627. Soon, J.-J. (2008). The determinants of international students' return intention, Economics Discussion Papers 0806: Department of Economics, University of Otago. Stark, O. (2005). The new economics of the brain drain. World Economics, 6(2), 137-140. Zweig, D. (1997). To return or not to return? Politics vs. economics in. Studies in Comparative International Development, 32(1), 92-125