Sex, race, gender, and the presidential vote PUBLIC INTEREST STATEMENT

Abstract: Racial resentment has been shown to have a significant impact on voting by whites in recent presidential elections, and a much larger impact than the traditional gender-gap measure based on the male-female dichotomy. This analysis will use data from the American National Election Studies [ANES] to compare broader indicators of race and gender applicable to the Democratic and Republican parties as well as to respondents' opinions of appropriate roles for women. Since the 1980s the parties have diverged considerably on abortion and women's issues, and voters now view the Democrats as more supportive than Republicans of equality for women and reproductive rights. Perceptions of party differences on women's issues strongly influenced vote choice, 1988-2008, and in 2008 had greater impact on whites' votes than opinions on aid to blacks, abortion, gay marriage, or the economy. Although racial resentment was a strong predictor of the white vote in 2012 as in previous years, presidential voting was also significantly influenced by respondent sex as well as opinions on gender roles. Voters regarded the Democratic Party as "better for the interests of women," and this proved to be a highly effective wedge issue for the Democrats in 2012. PUBLIC INTEREST STATEMENT Race has had a strong impact on voting for US President, since over 90% of African-Americans vote Democratic, while a majority of non-Hispanic whites vote Republican. But despite the persistence of a gender gap in voting, sex has had much less impact than race. This paper argues that what matters to voters is not simply their biological sex (male vs. female) but their attitudes toward appropriate social roles for men and women. Since the 1970s Americans have become more supportive of equality for women. Voters are aware of considerable differences between Democratic and Republican parties in support for women's rights, and perceptions of candidate positions on women have been a major predictor of the vote for President. Analysis of the 2008 and 2012 elections shows that gender and race strongly influenced the vote, while the economy, health care, abortion, and gay marriage had less impact