Tree spatial pattern within the forest–tundra ecotone: a comparison of sites across Canada

Accepted VersionAlthough many studies have focused on factors influencing treeline advance with climate change, less consideration has been given to potential changes in tree spatial pattern across the forest–tundra ecotone. We investigated trends in spatial pattern across the forest–tundra ecotone and geographical variation in the Yukon, Manitoba, and Labrador, Canada. Tree cover was measured in contiguous quadrats along transects up to 100 m long located in Forest, Ecotone, and Tundra sections across the forest–tundra transition. Spatial patterns were analyzed using new local variance to estimate patch size and wavelet analysis to determine the scale and amount of aggregation. Compared with the Forest, tree cover in the Ecotone was less aggregated at most sites, with fewer smaller patches of trees. We found evidence that shorter trees may be clumped at some sites, perhaps due to shelter from the wind, and we found little support for regular spacing that would indicate competition. With climate change, trees in the Ecotone will likely become more aggregated as patches enlarge and new patches establish. However, results were site-specific, varying with aspect and the presence of krummholz (stunted trees); therefore, strategies for adaptation of communities to climate change in Canada’s subarctic forest would need to reflect these differences