A market target for the New Zealand dairy industry

In the marketing section of its research programme the Agricultural Economics Research unit is concerned, amongst other things, with formulating projections of the future demand for New Zealand's agricultural exports. Such projections are an essential ingredient in the formulation of long term development plans for the New Zealand economy, especially in so far as those plans are concerned with the desirability of emphasis on increasing exports compared with the expansion of import substitution. Market projections are also needed to assist policy makers in making the correct decisions as to the relative accent which should be placed on different products within the broad agricultural group. In this latter context, market projections or targets for specific products, are particularly important as a necessary adjunct to the overall agricultural production target of 4 per cent per annum, set by the Agricultural Development Conference. In this paper, the author directs his attention first to the general methodological questions underlying market projections; and then he turns his attention more specifically to the likely future supply of and demand for dairy products. The question he sets out to answer is "Can New Zealand in the next ten years sell, at profitable prices, an increased quantity of dairy products at a rate which would justify encouraging the industry to expand its output at 4 per cent per annum?"