Decision Analysis Using Value-Focused Thinking to Select Renewable Alternative Fuels

The United States relies on imported oil as a result of domestic petroleum consumption rates greatly exceeding production rates. Alternative fuels are a major force in the effort to reduce petroleum consumption in the transportation industry. The transportation industry also accounts for 1/3 of all greenhouse gas emissions and nearly half of all cancers attributed to outdoor sources of pollutants. The purpose of this research was to evaluate the economic and environmental feasibility of renewable alternative fuels and associated blends (ethanol, methanol, 100% biodiesel (B100), 20% biodiesel (B20) and e-diesel) compared to non-renewable alternative fuels (compressed natural gas and propane) and conventional fuels (gasoline and diesel) using the decision analysis approach of Value-Focused Thinking (VFT.) Specifically, this thesis sought to answer three sets of research questions addressing the appropriate methodology for selecting renewable alternative fuels, the justification for using renewable alternative fuels and the suitability of using the developed model at differing geographic locations. The research questions were answered through a comprehensive literature review, and the development and utilization of the model. The culmination of this effort was the development of a complete and non-redundant VFT model that can be used by installation commanders, environmental managers, or transportation officers to select renewable alternative fuels for their government vehicles. Recommendations to utilize renewable alternative fuels through this decision analysis tool are also discussed