Appendices to Pacific Water Plan Review Draft

Document: Appendices to Pacific Southwest Water Plan Review Draft "Bureau of Mines Appendix", August 1963, page 12POWER REQUIREMENTS AND SOURCES Although the lower Colorado River Basin's population will increase linearly (Fig. 1), its power requirements will increase exponentially (Fig. 5) as energy use per capita continues to grow. Electrical requirements will increase from about 44.3 billion kwh in 1960 to 171.5 billion kwh by 1980 (Fig. 5 and Table 3) and may exceed 700 billion kwh by 2000 (Fig. 5). Hydroelectric capacity will continue to grow but its relative importance will be dwarfed by the increase in thermal generation capacity. Most thermal generation units in the Arizona area will utilize coal or gas. Coal will become the dominant source of energy by 2000. In the southern California area the situation is different. Despite large local reserves of oil and gas and the possibility of Western coal being transported to the load centers by means of coal slurry pipelines or integral trains, nuclear generation will become the major source of energy by 1985. Table 4 shows the predicted relationship of energy sources in the State of California. Because of air pollution regulations, nuclear generation will be encouraged to develop even more rapidly in southern California. Reserves of fossil fuels are more than adequate to meet foreseeable future power needs. Estimated proved reserves of natural gas in California, as of 1961, were 9.1 trillion cubic feet (Ref. 12). Interconnected fields in the Mountain States and Texas contained an estimated 143 trillion cubic feet in 1960 (Ref. 7). Tied-in pipelines make at least a portion of the total quantity available to the Lower Colorado River Basin area. Assuming 1075 Btu/cubic foot of natural gas and 34% (Ref. 15) efficiency (future thermal plants will be even more efficient, thereby decreasing fuel demands), only 6.5 trillion cubic feet of gas would be required to generate the 700 billion kwh energy requirement predicted for 2000. Of course, not all of the power requirement will be met by utilizing natural gas energy. Proved reserves of crude petroleum in California, as of 1961, were 3.9 billion barrels (Ref. 12). At 6 million Btu per barrel and 34-1/2% efficiency (Ref. 15) the 700 billion kwh year 2000 requirement is equivalent to about 1.1 billion barrels of oil. Although other Western States' oil reserves could be tapped, oil is not expected to play a vigorous role in the expanding thermal generation field (Table 4). While California has only 47 million tons of coal and lignite (Ref. 1), Colorado, New Mexico, and Utah have a combined bituminous coal reserve of 85 billion tons (Ref. 7). Assuming 25 million Btu per short ton of bituminous coal and 35% efficiency (Ref. 15), only about 270 million tons of bituminous coal would be consumed in generating the 700 billion kwh year 2000 requirement. -12-Epson Perfection 4870 Photo, 400 dpi, 8 bit, 2,885,161 byte