Political, legal and mathematical forecasts on holding parliamentary elections in the Republic of Macedonia with closed or open lists

This study shall provide an overview of the advantages and disadvantages of open and closed lists, depending on the type and level of openness, number of political parties, number of constituencies, number of voters and tenures, political culture model and model reflecting the votes in tenures. Politically and legally, the research will lead us to some conclusion about the best solution for the Republic of Macedonia, considering its demographics and the best solution for different categories of political parties (categories, depending on the number of voters, whether the party is some minority ethnic community, whether it enjoys support throughout the country equally or unequally). Also, the possibilities for electoral irregularities will be compared and the willingness of Macedonian voter to create candidates list will be analyzed, as well as what would be a determinant in his/her decision when it comes to open list. The research from mathematical point of view will contain projections based on calculations that refer to the advantages and disadvantages of the aforecited lists. The mathematical forecast will be based on the total number of voters, the models for defining constituencies, the type of the model that would be used to represent the seats, the size of the so-called electoral remainder in certain types of candidate lists, possibility of suppressing certain voters’ groups as well as the optimization coefficient of the number of maximum elected candidates on open candidates list. When the proportional models are analyzed, some questions occur, such as whether the whole country should be one constituency or should it be divided in several constituencies, whether a so-called threshold of elimination to be set (prohibiting clause): whether a determined quota to be set for MPs/councilors’ seats, whether the candidates’ lists to be open or closed etc. Whether an open or closed list in proportional model depends on the homogeneity in the society, political culture, democratic tradition etc. Key words: open list, D'Hondt method, largest remainder method, Hare quota, Droop quota, Hare method, Cincinnati metho