Agricultural Finance Markets in Transition: Credit Risk Models: An Application to Agricultural Lending

Credit risk models are developed and used to estimate capital requirements for agricultural lenders under the New Basel Capital Accord. The theoretical models combine Merton’s distance-to-default approach with credit value-at-risk methodologies. Two applied models, CreditMetrics and KMV, are illustrated using farm financial data. Expected and unexpected losses for a portfolio of farms are calculated using probability of default, loss given default, and portfolio risk measures. The results show that credit quality and correlations among farms play a significant role in risk pricing for agricultural lenders