Optimal, rational forecasts are often biased and thus the empirical finding that actual forecasts are biased is not necessarily evidence of irrational behavior. Using an asymmetric loss function and a regression forecasting problem, these points are explicitly demonstrated
Evaluation of forecast optimality in economics and Þnance has almost exclusively been conducted unde...
Empirical studies of forecasts often fail to reconcile the rational expectations hypothesis with a m...
In situations where a sequence of forecasts is observed, a common strategy is to examine ‘rationalit...
Survey data on expectations frequently find evidence that forecasts are biased, rejecting the joint ...
In situations where a sequence of forecasts is observed, a common strategy is to examine "rationalit...
In situations where a sequence of forecasts is observed, a common strategy is to examine “rationali...
Evaluation of forecast optimality in economics and finance has almost exclusively been conducted und...
Systematically biased forecasts are typically interpreted as evidence of forecasters' irrationality ...
We combine the innovative approaches of Elliott, Komunjer, and Timmermann (2005) and Patton and Timm...
The signs of forecast errors can be predicted using the difference between individuals' forecasts an...
We combine the innovative approaches of Elliott, Komunjer, and Timmermann (2005) and Patton and Timm...
Using forecasts of the Brazilian real and the Mexican peso, we analyze the shape of the loss functio...
Evaluation of forecast optimality in economics and Þnance has almost exclusively been con-ducted und...
We study whether forecasts of the rate of change of the price of oil are rational. To this end, we c...
Professional forecasters may not simply aim to minimize expected squared forecast errors. In models ...
Evaluation of forecast optimality in economics and Þnance has almost exclusively been conducted unde...
Empirical studies of forecasts often fail to reconcile the rational expectations hypothesis with a m...
In situations where a sequence of forecasts is observed, a common strategy is to examine ‘rationalit...
Survey data on expectations frequently find evidence that forecasts are biased, rejecting the joint ...
In situations where a sequence of forecasts is observed, a common strategy is to examine "rationalit...
In situations where a sequence of forecasts is observed, a common strategy is to examine “rationali...
Evaluation of forecast optimality in economics and finance has almost exclusively been conducted und...
Systematically biased forecasts are typically interpreted as evidence of forecasters' irrationality ...
We combine the innovative approaches of Elliott, Komunjer, and Timmermann (2005) and Patton and Timm...
The signs of forecast errors can be predicted using the difference between individuals' forecasts an...
We combine the innovative approaches of Elliott, Komunjer, and Timmermann (2005) and Patton and Timm...
Using forecasts of the Brazilian real and the Mexican peso, we analyze the shape of the loss functio...
Evaluation of forecast optimality in economics and Þnance has almost exclusively been con-ducted und...
We study whether forecasts of the rate of change of the price of oil are rational. To this end, we c...
Professional forecasters may not simply aim to minimize expected squared forecast errors. In models ...
Evaluation of forecast optimality in economics and Þnance has almost exclusively been conducted unde...
Empirical studies of forecasts often fail to reconcile the rational expectations hypothesis with a m...
In situations where a sequence of forecasts is observed, a common strategy is to examine ‘rationalit...
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