A Framework for Multistate Demoeconomic Modeling and Projection, With an Illustrative Application

This paper outlines a theoretical framework for the consistent and policy relevant projection of populations disaggregated by sex, age, marital status, and region. The framework makes use of multistate life table and projection techniques, and a two-sex model of transitions between the married, divorced, and widowed states, to ensure the consistent determination of the future size and structure of the population on the basis of transitions assumed to occur over the projection period. It also uses model schedules to reduce the information load required for projection and to produce descriptive and interpretable parameters which can be explained and.projected with the aid of an economic model that relates these parameters of demographic transition to their demographic and economic determinants. An illustrative application of this framework, using Australian data, is included