Agricultural Trade Diversion Effects and Strategies for Bangkok Agreement Negotiation

The objective of this study is to measure the impacts of agricultural product offer at the Third Round of Bangkok Agreement. Potential Bilateral Trade(PBT), which may be interpreted as a maximum level of trade diversion effect is estimated to US$ 1.6 billion for 122 agricultural products that requested by China. This amount exceeded current agricultural import from China. The biggest PBT is US$ 345 million for corn followed by US$ 250 million for food preparations and US$ 200 for tobacco. These results seem to back up the strategy of excluding agricultural product from concession at the Third Round of Bangkok Agreement. Or it supports Korean position of re-negotiating the inclusion of agricultural products after settlement of WTO/DDA negotiation