The Value of USDA Information in a Big Data Era

The goal of this study is to determine how big data and access to information affects the role and impact of USDA’s situation and outlook programs. Changes in market reaction to various USDA reports including WASDE, Crop Production, Grain Stocks, Prospective Plantings, Acreage, Hogs and Pigs and Cattle on Feed reports over 1970-2016 study period were analyzed. Market reaction was measured as a change in volatility of corn, soybean, wheat, lean hogs, live cattle, cotton and frozen concentrated orange juice returns on report release days. Our findings demonstrate that the impact of USDA reports has not diminished and often increased in crops during the recent decade. On the other hand, the value of USDA reports in livestock markets appears to be decreasing