The Increasing Participation of China in the World Soybean Market and Its Impact on Price Linkages in Futures Markets

This paper examines price linkages between soybean futures contracts traded in China, U.S, Brazil and Argentina for the period ranging from 2002 to 2011. The main findings show that U.S. prices still appear to have a dominant role to explain price changes in international markets. Results also indicate stronger linkages between prices in China and in the other three markets, especially after 2006. This result suggests the Chinese market has become more integrated with international markets in recent years, which might reflect the growing participation of China in international trade and the development of its soybean futures contract