Russian Federation: Determinants of Wheat Import Demand

This report provides an overview of the Russian domestic wheat sector and the factors that affect its wheat import demand. Despite its position as the world's largest wheat producer until the early 1980's, the former Soviet Union has been a consistent net importer of wheat since the mid 1970's. Import demand was driven by an expanding livestock sector and decreasing domestic supply in the form of State procurement. The primary suppliers of wheat to Russia are the United States, the European Community, and Canada. These exporters accounted for over 90 percent of FSU market share in marketing year 1992/93. Availability of financing and price were identified by importers as the most important determinants of import source. Given these criteria, increased cleanliness of U.S. wheat would not lead to larger Russian imports of U.S. wheat. Beginning in 1993, Russian wheat imports began to decline, due to creditworthiness problems, increased production in 1992, and decreased utilization, especially in the livestock sector. If substantial liberalization of the domestic grain marketing system, which was proposed at the end of 1993, is implemented, Russian wheat imports should continue to decrease, given more efficient production and utilization. In addition, quality considerations could become more important if processors are able to directly determine contract specifications