Agricultural intensification and land use change: A panel cointegration approach to test induced intensification, land sparing and rebound-effect.

The growing societal demands for land-based products and services, linked to increasing population, can be satisfied through either clearing new land for agriculture or intensifying production on existing land. Agricultural intensification is promoted as a central strategy to fulfill these demands while reducing pressure on land. We used cross-country panel data on cropland area and productivity to test three hypotheses on the relationships between agricultural intensification, land use expansion and contraction. The induced intensification hypothesis postulates that restrictions on cropland expansion can induce intensification. The land sparing hypothesis postulates that intensification allows reducing cropland expansion, while the competing rebound-effect hypothesis asserts that intensification, by making agriculture more profitable, can trigger further land expansion. We used cointegration to disentangle the long-run and short-run causal relationships between the variables. In the short run, we found support for the induced intensification hypothesis for high-income countries, and rebound effect for middle- and low-income countries (due to increases in yield or total factor productivity (TFP) that lead to cropland expansion). In the long run, the land sparing hypothesis holds for low- and middle-income countries (due to increases in yield negatively affecting cropland area). TFP has a positive effect on yields for low- and middle-income countries. Acknowledgement