Assessing farmers’ preferences for the future of the Common Agricultural Policy: insights from of a discrete choice experiment in Germany

This paper analyses the determinants of German farmers’ acceptance of alternative agricultural policy packages. The analysis is based on a discrete choice experiment with 434 farmers from across Germany. The study participants presented with the choice of three different policy packages in each of the seven choice sets for which responses were to be given, plus an option to withdraw from the present agricultural policy. The data was analysed using a random parameter logit model and a latent class estimation to reveal preference heterogeneity among those surveyed. Around two thirds of respondents declared themselves to be in favour of the continuation of direct payments. Less than half of the respondents (40 %) were prepared in principle to accept higher standards in the environment and animal welfare in return for continued direct payments. However, nearly one quarter (23%) of those surveyed wanted direct payments to continue without having to do anything in return. The majority of farmers surveyed were against a state safety net through market intervention. One third of respondents wanted the abolition of the Common Agricultural Policy in its present form, including direct payments