Analyzing Total Factor Productivity Effects of Agricultural Policies and Climate Change Using Production Function Models

Our global agricultural economy is challenged with serving the nutritional needs of nine billion people by the year 2050. An estimated seventy-percent increase in agricultural production capacity is needed over the next thirty-five years to balance the growth trends of worldwide food supply and demand. To investigate fundamental aspects of this challenge, we utilize a USDA-ERS production model (2003)i and an OECD model of sustainable growth to examine the economic factors required for sustainable Total Factor Productivity (TFP) growth.ii We also review the effects of alternative institutional approaches, research funding policies, new technologies and climate change effects as critical determinants of global TFP growth rates required to meet growing worldwide food demands