THE DECOMPOSITION OF PRICE TIME SERIES COMPONENTS OF THE RED MEAT INDUSTRY FOR EFFICIENT POLICY AND MARKETING STRATEGIES

Prices arc the signals for production, consumption and policy formation. Producer prices arc volatile and a considerable amount of variation exists over the short, medium and long term, but there are also, however, stable price variation patterns. Producers and policy makers can use these price cycles to adopt efficient production and marketing policy strategies. This research was aimed at identifying, isolating and estimating seasonal, cyclic and trend components of beef prices for the Witwatersrand controlled market. The traditional decomposition approach in combination with analysis of variance and regression techniques were used. Statistical significant typical price components were isolated and estimated for all grades and super prices. These components were used to create static forecasts in order to predict a general change in the movement of prices. Although this research was primarily aimed at the identification and isolation of cycles. explanatory elements in the form of rainfall and supply indicators were added. This research indicated that beef price cycles are relative stable and are partly self generating processes, depending on price expectations, supply cycles and rainfall cycles