VARIABILITY IN RENTAL RATES PAID IN THE FLUE-CURED TOBACCO ALLOTMENT RENTAL MARKETS IN SELECTED NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES

The economic factors that determine the differential level of variance of rent paid per pound of allotment transferred were analyzed in the framework of cost and returns to information. Regression analysis was used to test the hypothesis, that the variance in rent paid within a county for the 1966 production year was affected by the cost of information, returns to information and the level of variance existing before the search of market processes. The data used to study these hypotheses were obtained by a mail survey in 15 counties in North Carolina and from the ASCS county offices. Two basic models were developed. In the first one the dependent variable was an estimate of the total variance of rent paid in a county. In the second model the dependent variable was the variance due to differences among farmers within a county. The variable representing the cost of information hypothesis was found to be a significant factor in explaining the level of variance in the second model. The variable representing the returns to information hypothesis was significant in the first model. The "percentage of underplanting in 1961" was used as the independent variable representing the hypothesis that variance existing before the search of the market affects the variance in rent paid. Its coefficient was significant in both models. Transferability of information was expected to result in the reduction of variance as the trading season advances. Regressions of variance of rent paid by 15-day intervals on the time variable indicated no trend in the level by variance within each comty. The effect of large poundage, transferred by each farmer, on the price paid by him was investigated. A negative effect was hypothesized, but the regression coefficient had the hypothesized sign in only a few of the sample counties