The effect of the GSP scheme on European Union's horticultural imports from SADC member countries: A Triple-Difference Approach

This work evaluates the effect of the Generalised System of Preferences (GSP1) on EU’s fruit imports from Southern African Development Community (SADC) member countries during 2005-2014, using a new and advanced micro-econometric tool known as the Triple- Difference estimator. The estimator is advantageous given that it is robust to policy endogeneity and it uses a very flexible benchmark to which the intensive margin and extensive margin of trade performance are compared. Two preference margin measures are used as proxies for the preferential treatment granted to SADC member countries by the EU. Furthermore, highly disaggregated data at HS 6-Digit level, for 12 SADC member countries and 27 EU member states are used for the analysis. The analysis employed takes into consideration of zero-trade flows. Empirical results suggest that the EU-GSP scheme generally has a significant positive impact on EU’s fruit imports from SADC member countries. Notably, the Least Developed Countries (LDCs) benefited more from the scheme as compared to the non-LDCs