Impacts of the Chinese Fuel-Ethanol Program on the World Corn Market: An Econometric Simulation Approach

The Chinese Government has promoted the national fuel-ethanol program since 2002 to deal with the energy security and air pollution problem. Inferior corn has been allocated as the major raw material to produce fuel-ethanol, but is inadequate for this purpose. Contrary to the national government's decision, the Chinese fuel-ethanol facilities in Heilongjiang and Jilin use normal corn, which is used for feed, food and industrial raw material. This study examines the impacts the Chinese fuel-ethanol program would have on domestic and international corn markets, by applying a newly developed Chinese corn market model. Our simulation suggests moderate impacts of the problem on the world corn market