An Evaluation of the 2015 Outbreak of Avian Influenza in the U.S.

This study quantifies the impacts of the 2015 outbreak of the highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) along the Pacific, Central and Mississippi flyways via a partial equilibrium sector-specific modeling system. Production shocks for egg and turkey sectors as well as trade shocks for egg, turkey, and broiler sectors are analyzed based on actual changes reported by USDA. Alternative scenarios for greater HPAI production losses were analyzed along with export demand reductions to test the combined impacts on prices of broiler, eggs, and turkey. The effects of the HPAI outbreak are examined by comparing the 10-year projection results for production, exports, prices, and per capita consumption for broiler, turkey, and egg. In all cases, the effects of the shock on production start to disappear after the second year while the effects of the shock on exports continue for 5 or more years