Regional wheat price effects of extreme weather events and wheat export controls in Russia and Ukraine

This paper further builds on the price transmission model framework of existing studies to identify domestic wheat price effects of wheat export controls. We explicitly take the fact into account that a harvest failure causes domestic price effects as well. Moreover, the analysis at the regional level provides further evidence of the functioning of export controls in a large country. Results suggest a pronounced regional heterogeneity in the strength of domestic price effects of the 2010/11 export ban in Russia. The wheat price dampening effects amount to up to 67 % and are strongest in the major wheat exporting region with direct access to the world market. This effect is transmitted to other regions by increased and reversed interregional trade flows. Contrasting, regional variation of export controls´ domestic price effects in Ukraine is rather small