The impact of the 2013 Common Agricultural Policy reform on farmer's investment decisions: an ex-ante evaluation

The research question addressed in this study is the impact of the CAP 2013 reform and alternative CAP scenarios on farm investment behaviour and economic performances in different farming systems. An ex-ante analysis of the farmers’ response to different policy scenarios is performed simulating some of the main changes introduced by the reform in both CAP pillars, accounting for regional variations across Europe. The methodology consist in the implementation of a farm-level mathematical programming model. The model is cast as an integer dynamic linear programming model based on the model developed by Viaggi et al. (2010) using GAMS software. The models are calibrated using a set of real farms data and accouting for farmers stated intentions collected through survey (Lefebvre, 2014). In this paper we present the model structure, the policy scenario and the results of the simulations carried out on 50 models, each corresponding to a surveyed farm