Impact Simulation of ECOWAS Rice Self-Sufficiency Policy

Rice is a strategic commodity for food security in West Africa. Its consumption has grown rapidly over time and dependency on imported rice exposes the region to external shocks stemming from the global market. Given its economic and social importance, national and regional strategies have been developed to boost rice production and meet the challenge of rice self-sufficiency in West Africa by 2025. Our analysis projects total rice consumption to reach around 24 million metric tons by 2025, increasing by 74 percent over the period 2011–2025. The required average annual increase in production (8 percent) is estimated to be twice that of consumption (4 percent) to achieve the self-sufficiency goal by 2025. As a consequence, the regional GDP growth rate is expected to increase by an average of 0.4 percentage point per year relative to the baseline scenario over the period 2015–2025