Short-run dynamics of feed ingredient prices facing the EC: a causal analysis

This paper attempts to (1) shed some light on the EC- US controversy concerning the effect of the EC oilseeds market regime on EC imports of US soybean products, essentially soy meal, and (2) provide information on another EC- US controversy: Does corn-gluten feed behave as a substitute for (EC view) or a complement to (US view) feed grains, and do EC corn-gluten feed imports displace EC grain production or not? By using a constrained vectorial autoregressive model of Rotterdam prices for soy meal, sunflower meal, rape meal, corn-gluten feed and cassava, we show that (1) the decrease in EC imports of US soymeal are mot mainly caused by the EC milling subsidies, and (2) corngluten feed is both a substitute for soymeal due to its protein content and a substitute for cassava (and grains) due to its energy content: US and EC views are only partial views