Grains and oilseeds outlook for 2002

Introduction : Bob Riemenschneider will only present the International Grains and Oilseeds Outlooks for 2002/03 at the Grains and Oilseeds session. This paper provides the domestic supply, use, and price projections for 2002/03 for wheat, corn, and soybeans and products. The first official USDA supply and use projections will not be published until May 10, when the National Agricultural Statistics Service publishes the first forecast of winter wheat production. While material in Bob’s speech provides much of the background for the trade projections in this paper, the other “projections” are based on the Winter Wheat Seeding report and analyses by members of the Interagency Estimates Committees for Wheat, Feed Grains, and Oilseeds. There are numerous differences between the projections in this paper and those for 2002/03 in the Baseline, partially because the Baseline was done last October. However, one major difference is the analyses in this paper are based on an assumption that loan rates for 2002/03 are the same as for 2001/02. This change is based on a belief that most farmers and commodity analysts expect unchanged loan rates for 2002/03, and the change will allow readers to more readily compare USDA projections with those from other sources. Corn prices in 2002/03 are projected up around a dime from this year as expanding industrial use and exports more than offset the larger production. Larger wheat and soybeans crops are also expected, with expanding use almost offsetting the larger soybean production. Wheat, however, will face even greater competition in the export market than this year and prices are projected down a nickel form the midpoint of the forecast price range for 2001/02