Grain potentials on abandoned cropland in European Russia

Widespread abandoned cropland suggests ample scope for increasing grain production in Russia. However, sound estimates of future grain production and export potentials of Russia are missing. We estimated climate-adjusted grain yields that represent average yields of non-draught years in the post-soviet period. We then utilized a cropland abandonment map, a spatial allocation model and the climate-adjusted grain yields to estimate potential future grain production from recultivation. We assume that recultivation starts with the most recently abandoned plots where the carbon stocks in the successional vegetation and soils are lower. The recultivation of the eight million ha that were abandoned since 2001 results in a potential production increase of 11.4 million t of grain at likely moderate CO2 emission levels. If all 26 million ha of cropland abandoned since 1991 would be recultivated, approximately 42 million t of grain can be produced in addition to current production. The prospect for substantial increases in grain production with comparatively low carbon emissions suggest an important role for Russia in balancing the tradeoffs between securing global food production while avoiding dangerous climate impacts