IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON CEREAL MARKET AND FOOD SECURITY IN SUDAN: STOCHASTIC APPROACH AND CGE MODEL

The paper aims at analysing the impact of the likely change in rainfall on food availability and access to food in Sudan. The empirical investigation is based on an integrated approach consisting on a stochastic method and CGE model. The former provides the likely changes in sorghum, millet and wheat productivity and their probability of occurrence according to rainfall predictions based on historical data. These results are at the basis of the shocks simulated in a standard CGE model augmented with a stochastic component. Achievements underline the negative impact on the two dimensions of food security taken into consideration, mainly due to a reduction in cereal supply, a marked cereal inflation pressure and income contraction; the grater negative effect on the poorest households; and a deterioration of the economic performance of the country. In this context, the paper stresses a strong interconnection among climate change, poverty and food insecurity and thus the need for an integrated policy-making approach