Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza Impacts on Japan’s Import Demand for Cooked and Uncooked Poultry, Beef, Pork, and Other Meats

A modified Central Bureau of Statistics (CBS) differential model was used to evaluate the impact of Japan’s 2004 HPAI-outbreaks and US 2003 BSE-outbreaks on Japan’s meat import demand system, including cooked poultry, uncooked poultry, beef, pork, and other meats. Analysis indicated that the HPAI-BSE events led to statistically significant shifts in Japan’s import demand for all meats, except for uncooked poultry. In the Post-BSE-HPAI era, imports of meat shifted toward rising demand for cooked poultry and pork meats and declining demand for uncooked poultry, beef, and other meats. The differentiation of poultry into cooked and uncooked meat products and the inclusion of both in modeling Japan’s meat demand system revealed two opposing trends never before reported; a decreasing demand for uncooked meat and an increasing demand for safer cooked poultry meat