The agro- structural change in the Alps and its outlook until 2020. A model based on key determinants

The agro-structural change in the Alps has been gaining intensity steadily since 1980. Farms continuously feel the pressure to adapt to changed economic, political, and social conditions. Those diverge significantly between the different alpine countries but also within a country. Based on the developments so far, the current situation and expected future framework conditions, this paper intends to indicate possible developments for future agro-structural trends in the Alpine arc. Using multivariate regression analyses, significant indicators were derived from harmonised parameters on municipality level, which influence farm abandonment. They form the basis of the forecast of farm abandonment until 2020. Based on agro-economic scenarios from the project Scenar 2020 (EC, 2006), the expected annual abandonment rates were calculated for each municipality. The scenario results vary widely between the national alpine areas as well as between the regions. The comparison with the effective, dynamic development 2000-2007 demonstrates how “realistic” the scenarios are