Rural development drivers and public policy formulation: the use of prospective structural analysis

Traditional economic development theories have struggled to identify, in a comprehensive manner, the drivers and constraints that explain singular development paths and lead to spatial inequalities. Assuming that development patterns are territory-specific, the research hypothesis is that public policies should have a better understanding of territorial dynamics in order to propose strategies efficient to trigger changes. This paper applies the use of Prospective Structural Analysis (PSA), a foresight analysis technique, to explore the territorial dynamics. The results show that, within a territory, the variables play different roles, and suggest that rural policies might have focused on factors that have few influence in fostering changes rather than on those with leverage effects