Impact on South African meat demand of a possible free trade agreement with the European Union

The Rotterdam model is used to estimate a demand system for South African (SA) beef, chicken, mutton and pork during 1971-1995 and identify the potential impacts on demand for these meat types of a Free Trade Agreement (FTA) between SA and the European Union. Conditional cross-price Slutsky elasticity estimates show that for a given 1% change in each meat price under an FTA, the beef price change would have the largest impact on consumption of the other meats. The net effect of the FTA would depend on the extent to which different meat prices fall if meat imports increase. Import competition may be felt particularly from poultry imports as most of SA beef imports are of a low quality