DISAGGREGATED ANALYSIS OF SHORT-RUN BEEF SUPPLY RESPONSE

Conceptual problems in model specification of beef supply response studies are investigated and a simultaneous equation model is formulated to estimate annual U.S. carcass supply, demand, and inventories of beef. Three basic issues are addressed: (a) disaggregation, (b) simultaneity, and (c) differentiation between current and expected price effects. Empirical results indicate positive supply response of each quality type of steers and heifers, and negative supply response of cows to current own-price changes. The derived aggregate supply elasticity is positive. The effects of grain price changes on beef price, supply and composition are also evaluated