A FARM-LEVEL ANALYSIS OF SOIL LOSS CONTROL: MODELING THE PROBABILISTIC NATURE OF ANNUAL SOIL LOSS

The Conservation Compliance provision of the Food Security Act of 1985 requires all farmers who farmed highly erodible land prior to the passage of the Act to have a locally approved conservation plan fully implemented by 1995 or lose eligibility for numerous farm programs. Soil loss estimates of various crop, tillage practices, and conservation practices, however, are stochastic in nature. A farm planning model is suggested that allows for stochastic soil loss estimates. The model is compared to other models used in farm level soil conservation studies. The model shows promise as a more acceptable tool in that the farm plans are more likely to be acceptable to the farmer