Analysing Family Farm Succession: A Probit and a Competing Risk Approach

The present study examines family and farm characteristics affecting the choice and the timing of intergenerational farm transfers. Using survey data which are linked to accounting data for 272 farms in Northern Germany, we use a probit approach to examine whether specific farm and family characteristics are related to the likelihood of succession within a given period. We go beyond the existing literature by applying a competing risk approach to study the process and thus the timing, respectively of the two competing events - succession or exit from farming. We find that farm characteristics significantly influence succession considerations to the extent that they affect the value of the farm for the potential successor