ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON SOUTHERN FORESTS

A multiperiod regional mathematical programming model is used to evaluate the potential economic impacts of global climatic change on the southern U.S. forestry sector. Scenarios for forest biological response to climate change are developed for small and large changes in forest growth rates. Resulting changes in timber supply have economic impacts on producers and consumers in forest products markets, both nationally and regionally. Conclusions include outer dimensions of global climate change impacts and potential effects of smaller biological responses on the forestry sector both nationally and in the U.S. South. Relative impacts are found to be larger for producers than for consumers, and southern producers experience relatively greater changes in economic welfare