ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF THE U.S.-AUSTRALIA FREE TRADE AGREEMENT

The general objective of this study is to analyze the economic impact of the recently negotiated U.S. - Australia Free Trade Agreement (FTA). Specific objectives are to estimate changes in trade and prices in different sectors of the U.S. and Australian economies and to determine the impact on U.S. agriculture and the U.S. beef industry in particular. The results of a general equilibrium analysis suggest that the FTA will not have significant effects on the economies of Australia, the United States, or the rest of the world. The United States could achieve gains in the manufacturing sector, but the U.S. agricultural sector could experience small losses as Australia could increase exports of dairy products and beef to the United States. The results of an econometric model, however, indicate that the quota increases under the 18-year phase-in period of the agreement would have a minimal impact on the U.S. beef industry. Benefits for U.S. agriculture appear to be small. Australia is not an important market for U.S. agriculture. U.S. soybean meal exports could increase, as could horticultural exports, but the bigger effect would likely be on exports of manufacturing products