Price, Trade and Welfare Effects of Agricultural Protection: The Case of East Asia

During the 1960's and 1970's, the extent of agricultural protection increased rapidly not only in Japan but also in South Korea and Taiwan. By the early 1980's food prices in East Asia averaged two or three times international levels, rivalling those in Western Europe. A multi-commodity stochastic simulation model measures the extent to which policies in East Asia have reduced the mean and increased the variance of international prices for grain and meat, reduced world trade in these products and affected economic welfare in East Asia and elsewhere. The effects of continued growth in East Asia's protection through the 1980's (leading to rice export surpluses) are then compared with the effects of partial liberalization