THE ROLE OF SCIENTIFIC AND BUSINESS INTEGRITY IN THE FUTURE OF BIOTECHNOLOGY: A SCENARIO ANALYSIS

The emergence of biotechnology in crop and livestock applications has been an issue of great controversy. Proponents argue that the potential benefits are dramatic while opponents have raised many concerns about the technology's risks. The Starlink debacle is a prime example of the undesirable outcomes which the debate has created. Given the controversy, what is the future of biotechnology for food uses? This paper is designed to address this question with a focus on the feasible range of alternative futures (scenarios) that could emerge. As a major variable in this analysis, the integrity of the scientific and business communities plays a critically important role. The paper begins with a description of three key uncertainties-food security, environmental/health impacts, and consumer reaction-that will define the future for biotechnology's use in food applications. Based on these uncertainties, four alternative future scenarios for biotechnology are presented. The role of messenger integrity is then introduced. The integrity of various possible messengers (scientists, businesses, government, and non-profits) is examined. The concept of integrity is then used to address a series of current biotechnology issues. Throughout the paper, comparisons and contrasts between the developed and developing world are made