A REGIONAL CROP ACREAGE MODEL: ESTIMATION OF ACREAGE RESPONSE TO GOVERNMENT PROGRAMS FOR THE EAST SOUTH CENTRAL REGION IN THE U.S. WITH A FORECAST FOR 1982-1985

Since the early 1930's, congress has established a number of programs intended to soften the impact of economic forces upon farmers. These programs seek to adjust production to utilization on a year-to-year basis by offering incentives to producers to expand or contract their crop planting. As a result, accurate estimates of producer response to changing market prices and government programs are very important for policy makers as they attempt to adjust programs to balance demand and supply. Good forecasts of future crop acreages can also help economists provide producers and agribusinesses with better guides for strategies and planning, marketing, and production decisions. The objective of this study is to forecast acreage planted for a specific region using both national government policy variables and region-specific variables. Two aspects of acreage planted which are of particular interest are: (1) whether or not national variables can be used in the regional model, and (2) what additional information can be added to improve the regional model