Probabilistic Load Flow by Monte Carlo Simulation to Determine the Amount of Use of the Transmission System

Access to the transmission network by generators and distributors is essential in the unbundled configuration of the electricity market. Regulatory agents seek to improve the relationship between network users and their operators in order to optimize investments, increase reliability and lower tariffs. In this context, the need arises to foresee the use of transmission networks as accurately as possible to correctly signal to planners and to reduce users' tariff costs. This paper aims to present a methodology for obtaining the amounts of power at the connection points between users and the transmission network, in addition to a search system for the least probable charge. A probabilistic load flow method by numerical method was used, with the search for the lowest charge value. The inputs were modeled as random variables with known probability distribution functions. High concentrations of wind generators were considered and modeled as Weibull distributions. A modified IEEE 14 bus system was used as a case study. The results showed the amounts by risk and by lower value, being the user's option to choose each of the results. The presented method proved to be an interesting proposal for situations that require a forecast of the amounts of use of the transmission system in the medium and long term, with the presence of wind generators