The predictive and prognostic significance of liquid biopsy in advanced epidermal growth factor receptor-mutated non-small cell lung cancer : a prospective study

Objective: To determine the predictive and prognostic roles of three blood-based biomarkers: circulating tumour DNA (ctDNA), circulating tumour cells (CTC) and carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA), in patients with advanced epidermal growth factor receptor-mutated (EGFR+) lung cancer. Materials and methods: We recruited 28 patients with 103 serial blood samples. We performed mutational analyses for EGFR mutations using droplet digital PCR (ddPCR) on ctDNA. We evaluated the accuracy of EGFR mutation detection in ctDNA compared with tissue biopsy. We also quantified CTCs, ctDNA and CEA in serially collected blood samples, and evaluated the baseline and changes in these blood-based biomarkers with clinical outcomes. Results: EGFR mutation detection in plasma was highly concordant as compared with tissue biopsy. Detectable baseline ctDNA was associated with higher disease burden (p < 0.01). Early disappearance of ctDNA at 4 weeks was associated with radiological response at 12 weeks of treatment (p = 0.01) and improved progression free survival (PFS) (HR 5.47, 95%CI 1.32–22.72, p = 0.02) and overall survival (OS) (HR 5.46, 95%CI 1.28–23.22, p = 0.02). A decrease in CTC count at 4 weeks was associated with improved PFS (HR 3.81, 95%CI 1.13–12.79, p = 0.03) but not OS. 85% of patients with radiological progression had a ctDNA rise compared with 22% of patients with stable disease (p=0.01). ctDNA rise was seen on average 170 days prior to radiological progression. There is a significant association between the rise of CEA level with radiological progression (p=0.001). Conclusion: Early change in ctDNA, CTC and CEA levels may be long-term predictors of treatment benefit and failure prior to availability of radiological response data