Whole-farm effects of livestock intensification in smallholder systems in Gansu, China

Simulation models can help to identify the whole-farm economic and biophysical impacts of smallholder farmers altering their farming systems. Incorporating long-term climate-induced variability in crop and livestock production enables the implications for agricultural household income and risk to be explored over a range of seasonal conditions. In this study, a simulation model is used to answer the following question: can reducing the area used for grain production by allocating more land to lucerne (Medicago sativa) and increasing livestock numbers improve total net farm income, reduce income variability and maintain grain self-sufficiency for farmers in the Qingyang Prefecture of Gansu Province, China? This was examined for three representative farm types found in the region: a low land-labour ratio farm household, a subsistence-oriented farm household, and a livestock-focused farm household.The Integrated Analysis Tool (IAT), a simulation model of a household farming system, was used to combine crop and forage production simulations, a livestock production model and a household socio-economic model to explore the impact of changes to farming systems over a 40. year simulation period. Data from 90 surveyed households were used to define the structure of the three farm household types and to calibrate the IAT model specifically for Qingyang Prefecture.Additional livestock increased total household net incomes, increased net livestock incomes and reduced net crop incomes for the subsistence-oriented and livestock-focused farm households. For these households, the greater commitment to livestock also reduced grain self-sufficiency due to increased frequency of purchasing grain for home-consumption. Nevertheless, additional livestock reduced income variability for these households whilst improving total net income.The methodology used is useful for understanding changes in farming systems as it focuses on the feasibility and profitability of alternative enterprise mixes and incorporates climate variability. The results support current debates on targeting livestock policies towards smallholders as subsistence-oriented farm households appear to be the largest beneficiaries from livestock interventions. The analysis demonstrates that tradeoffs between net income and grain self-sufficiency are important for households, especially when they are moving from subsistence-based to market-based production