The effect of vehicle ownership restrictions on travel behavior: Evidence from the Beijing license plate lottery

To combat traffic congestion and air pollution, many cities restrict vehicle ownership, but little is known about how these policies actually affect vehicle ownership, use, or travel time. Leveraging the randomization created by Beijing’s vehicle license plate lottery, we estimate the effects of the policy on travel behavior. We find that the policy reduces the total stock of cars in Beijing by 14%. It also causes large reductions in vehicle distance traveled, morning rush hour driving, and evening rush hour driving